WORST-CASE CORONAVIRUS SCIENCE - WSJ

  from the WSJ opinion page

Worst-Case Coronavirus Science

Neil Ferguson clarified his Covid-19 projections. Good for him.

By

The Editorial Board

March 27, 2020 7:17 pm ET

London Ambulance Service vehicles are seen outside the ExCeL London exhibition centre in London, March 27.

PHOTO: GLYN KIRK/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAG

Give Neil Ferguson a break. Nearly two weeks ago Mr. Ferguson, an epidemiologist with Imperial College London, issued a report on Covid-19. Much of the public attention focused on his worst-case projection that there might as many as 2.2 million American and 510,000 British deaths. Fewer paid attention to the caveat that this was “unlikely,” and based on the assumption that nothing was done to control it. 

The report was one reason that led Prime Minister Boris Johnson to change policy and lock Britain down. Under the Imperial College model, the projection was that the steps Mr. Johnson had been taking would cut the number of projected deaths in half but still leave about a quarter million British dead.

Now Mr. Ferguson has clarified his estimates. He told Parliament this week that he now reckons the number of deaths in the U.K. “would be unlikely to exceed 20,000”—and that many would be older people who would have died from other maladies this year. With the measures now in place, he believes Britain’s health service won’t be overwhelmed.

Critics are bashing him for the revisions, but not so fast. Mr. Ferguson didn’t change his model so much as adjust for new circumstances. In particular he believes that Covid-19 is more transmissible than he previously had thought—but because strong measures had been implemented, deaths would be far lower than his worst-case scenario.

There’s a warning here about science and journalism. Surely if we hope to neutralize a pandemic we don’t fully understand, we need to encourage a culture in which scientists feel able to adapt and clarify with new evidence. Scientists would also help themselves if, in explaining their findings, they would be more candid about the assumptions and variables.

This goes double for the press. It’s no secret that the press’s reputation has taken a credibility hit in this crisis. Nor is it any secret why: Instead of a presentation of what we know and don’t, too often the focus has been political scapegoating or sensationalizing. 

This week on “CBS This Morning,” U.S. Surgeon-General Jerome Adams complained about a press that runs with projections “based on worst-case scenarios.” He was talking about ventilators, but his point applies across the board. Deborah Birx, coordinator for the White House coronavirus task force, said the same regarding apocalyptic forecasts not backed by data about hospitals having to issue Do Not Resuscitate orders. 

In the battle to save lives and address the scourge of Covid-19, good information is paramount. Credit to Neil Ferguson for clarifying his projections when the situation changed..

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DUMB AND DUMBER

from 'The Hill'
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Brian Williams, NYT's Gay criticized over math flub: 'Saddest clip in TV history'

BY JOE CONCHA - 03/06/20 10:33 AM EST

MSNBC's Brian Williams was mocked over math on social media after quoting a tweet claiming that former 2020 Democratic presidential candidate Mike Bloomberg "could have given each American $1 million and still have money left over" during an interview with New York Times editorial board member Mara Gay. 

The blowback comes two days after Bloomberg dropped out of the 2020 presidential race. The billionaire had a dismal Super Tuesday showing that registered no wins in any of the 14 Super Tuesday states — although he did capture some delegates in the U.S. territory of American Samoa — despite spending more than $500 million on the race after jumping in last November.

“Bloomberg spent $500 million on ads. The U.S. population is 327 million. He could have given each American $1 million and still have money left over, I feel like a $1 million check would be life-changing for people. Yet he wasted it all on ads and STILL LOST," Williams said in quoting a tweet by journalist Mekita Rivas.

“It’s an incredible way of putting it,” Williams concluded.

“It’s an incredible way of putting it. It’s true,” Gay added. “It’s disturbing.”

The U.S. population is currently 327 million people, which if evenly divided by $500 million comes to $1.53 per person.

The hashtag "BrianWilliams" quickly trended on Twitter Thursday night after the flub. 

I weighed myself on Saturday morning...266.3 lbs
I am still eating good (that is, well) but if I am going to lose weight - still have to cut down calories.  


IT MIGHT BE TIME TO CONTACT YOUR UNIVERSITY THAT YOU GRADUATED FROM AND ASK FOR A REFUND.... YOU ARE A DOPE!

Mara Gay

Mara Gay is a member of the New York Times editorial board, focusing on New York State and local affairs. Before coming to The Times in 2018, she was a City Hall reporter at The Wall Street Journal, covering Mayors Bill de Blasio and Michael Bloomberg, and dozens of other stories that have shaped the nation’s largest, most dynamic city. Ms. Gay has also worked for the New York Daily News, The Atlantic and The Daily, an all-digital newspaper owned by News Corp. She has a degree in political science from the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, is a New York City native and lives in Brooklyn.

AND YOU MR. BRIAN WILLIAMS....

You have already been shamed for being a LIAR.

Of course, lying is not enough to get you fired from MSNBC - that's what they do.
Lying on MSNBC is an actual prerequisite to 'success' on that network.

But even you managed to disgrace yourself for being dishonest.

That is hard to do in the liberal left wacky dishonest disgusting news media....

Now you can add nincompoop to your resumé.