WORST-CASE CORONAVIRUS SCIENCE - WSJ

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Worst-Case Coronavirus Science

Neil Ferguson clarified his Covid-19 projections. Good for him.

By

The Editorial Board

March 27, 2020 7:17 pm ET

London Ambulance Service vehicles are seen outside the ExCeL London exhibition centre in London, March 27.

PHOTO: GLYN KIRK/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAG

Give Neil Ferguson a break. Nearly two weeks ago Mr. Ferguson, an epidemiologist with Imperial College London, issued a report on Covid-19. Much of the public attention focused on his worst-case projection that there might as many as 2.2 million American and 510,000 British deaths. Fewer paid attention to the caveat that this was “unlikely,” and based on the assumption that nothing was done to control it. 

The report was one reason that led Prime Minister Boris Johnson to change policy and lock Britain down. Under the Imperial College model, the projection was that the steps Mr. Johnson had been taking would cut the number of projected deaths in half but still leave about a quarter million British dead.

Now Mr. Ferguson has clarified his estimates. He told Parliament this week that he now reckons the number of deaths in the U.K. “would be unlikely to exceed 20,000”—and that many would be older people who would have died from other maladies this year. With the measures now in place, he believes Britain’s health service won’t be overwhelmed.

Critics are bashing him for the revisions, but not so fast. Mr. Ferguson didn’t change his model so much as adjust for new circumstances. In particular he believes that Covid-19 is more transmissible than he previously had thought—but because strong measures had been implemented, deaths would be far lower than his worst-case scenario.

There’s a warning here about science and journalism. Surely if we hope to neutralize a pandemic we don’t fully understand, we need to encourage a culture in which scientists feel able to adapt and clarify with new evidence. Scientists would also help themselves if, in explaining their findings, they would be more candid about the assumptions and variables.

This goes double for the press. It’s no secret that the press’s reputation has taken a credibility hit in this crisis. Nor is it any secret why: Instead of a presentation of what we know and don’t, too often the focus has been political scapegoating or sensationalizing. 

This week on “CBS This Morning,” U.S. Surgeon-General Jerome Adams complained about a press that runs with projections “based on worst-case scenarios.” He was talking about ventilators, but his point applies across the board. Deborah Birx, coordinator for the White House coronavirus task force, said the same regarding apocalyptic forecasts not backed by data about hospitals having to issue Do Not Resuscitate orders. 

In the battle to save lives and address the scourge of Covid-19, good information is paramount. Credit to Neil Ferguson for clarifying his projections when the situation changed..

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WRIGLEY FIELD

Me and my girl took a nine mile walk on Sunday... It is getting harder and harder to remember what day it  is when everyday is pretty much the same... Wake up, do not work, amuse oneself doing something, go to sleep, Wake up next day, repeat

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(GIMME) SHELTER AT HOME

Coronavirus is basically the only thing people are talking about.
On Saturday at 5PM, the state of Illinois 'shut down' with the "Shelter at Home' directive.

Sunday morning weight: 258 lbs.

I kinda hope I live long enough to enjoy the sacrifice of eating health(per)

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Illinois residents adjusting to life after stay at home order goes into effect

NEWS

by: Michelle Madaras

Posted: Mar 21, 2020 / 11:01 PM CDT / Updated: Mar 21, 2020 / 11:01 PM CDTIllinois Governor 

JB Pritzker says the decision to order residents to shelter at home was one that was not made lightly but he says it is what is necessary to flatten the curve of the coronavirus in the state.

Well before the order to shelter at home was given in Illinois, many residents started preparing for this moment.

Things like grocery stores, pharmacies, hardware stores, gas stations, and medical offices will remain open. Restaurants will only be open for takeout and delivery.

But no matter where you are health officials are stressing social distancing, so folks are trying to find a safe way to keep busy.

For now, folks say they’re trying to make it through and help out where they can, but the uncertainty of how long this pandemic could last and what will happen in the meantime is in the back of their minds.

The order to shelter at home is expected to last at least until April 7th in Illinois.

THIS PANDEMIC IS REAL!

I found this from an article in 2016.
I specifically wanted a non-conservative source.

(CNN) More people die in car crashes each year in the United States than in other high-income countries, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said in a report Wednesday. 

In 2013, more than 32,000 people died on U.S. roads, roughly 90 fatalities a day, according to the CDC.

Technically this is not a pandemic, technically it is not an epidemic. But it is a lot of people.
What I think we should do to minimize this carnage is ban all cars for non-essential travel.

If we can save just one life wouldn't it worth it?
If the life was yours you would surely agree.

There is of course a reason why this proposal of mine to ban all cars for non-essential driving is that the idea is amazingly stupid.  My 'cure' for saving lives on our roads would be worse than the 'disease'  My moronic solution would be worse than the current situation.

My only question regarding the CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC is: Are we over-reacting?

Yes, I know CORONAVIRUS is a dangerous virus or flu.
We have had deadly flus before.
We will have similar problems again.

Maybe if we were not doing all the things we are currently doing to fight coronavirus, all of us would die, or half of us, or one quarter of us, or only 10 million people or only 32,000 people.  We lost 32,000 people every year on the roads according to CNN.  Why are we not addressing that crisis!
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Good Morning from Apple News

It’s March 17, 2020.

Here’s what you need to know.

TOP STORIES

Americans hunker down

President Trump issued new coronavirus guidance, striking a more urgent tone about the outbreak. He asked the public to avoid restaurants, bars, and groups larger than 10 people for at least 15 days, and warned the fight could stretch into August. Many states and cities are already taking additional measures; nearly 7 million Northern California residents are under a “shelter in place” order, mandating that they stay home unless absolutely necessary. CNN POLITICS

Despite measures to protect the markets, stocks hit their lowest point since the beginning of the sell-off. Trump acknowledged the economy may enter a recession, and airlines are in talks with the government for $50 billion in aid. THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

A House-approved package including paid sick leave for some workers and free coronavirus testing could be considered by the Senate today. Meanwhile, some lawmakers are starting to get behind additional crisis measures, like a cash handout to Americans. BLOOMBERG

Where are the worst outbreaks in the U.S.? When is it OK to go out? Here’s the latest on the coronavirus, plus tips for staying healthy, all in one place. APPLE NEWS SPOTLIGHT

THE OHIO GOVERNOR ORDERED POLLS NOT TO OPEN for today’s primary because of the outbreak. The move is creating confusion over how locals can cast their votes, after a judge ruled earlier that the election could not be postponed. Florida, Illinois, and Arizona are going ahead with primaries today. POLITICO

THE U.S.-LED COALITION IS WITHDRAWING TROOPS from some Iraq bases and relocating them in the region. Officials said the move is a result of the threat of Islamic State diminishing, and not because of a wave of attacks by Iran-backed militia groups in recent weeks. THE WASHINGTON POST

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Good Morning from Apple News

It’s March 16, 2020.

Here’s what you need to know.

TOP STORIES

Americans urged to stay home as coronavirus spreads

Many schools, bars, and restaurants closed across the country in an effort to curb the outbreak. President Trump declared a national emergency, and the CDC recommended gatherings of more than 50 people be canceled for the next eight weeks. Trump himself tested negative for the virus — he had previously met with people who were infected. NPR

The Fed took emergency measures to support the economy. The benchmark interest rate was cut to near zero, and $700 billion in bonds will be bought to support the markets. The Senate is also set to sign an aid package this week. REUTERS

The number of cases and deaths outside of China surpassed those within as the outbreak shifted to the U.S. and Europe. Spain followed Italy and called a nationwide lockdown, Germany imposed border controls, and in France, cafés, restaurants, and movie theaters closed. Crowds swelled at American airports as travelers, rushing home, were screened. THE TIMES AND THE SUNDAY TIMES

How can you keep your kids busy when school’s out for weeks? What’s the safest way to get food if you’re self-isolating? Here are tips for staying healthy (and sane) amid the crisis. APPLE NEWS SPOTLIGHT

JOE BIDEN AND BERNIE SANDERS debated how they would tackle the coronavirus outbreak in last night’s matchup, which was held without an audience. The two argued over health policy, immigration, and climate change, and Biden committed to choosing a woman running mate. USA TODAY

MORE CORONAVIRUSMANIA

I am not a person fearful of Global Warming.
Do not insult me and call me a climate-denier.
(That makes you seem like a moron)
I may however think that the 'fix' for the incremental warming of the planet will be harmful to us.

I am not a person fearful of CORONAVIRUS.
Do not insult me and call me a virus or science denier.
(That makes you seem like a moron)
I may however think that the 'fixes' will bring great harm to civilization. This is already happening.

I just this very second heard some wisdom on the radio....
Why was this called CORONAVIRUS?
Had this been called the Wuhan Flu - Would all of this craziness still happened?
You know, I think not.

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In other developments:

Wall Street had its worst day since the Black Monday crash of 1987. Here’s the latest from global markets.

At least six states and several large school districts moved to close schools for at least two weeks, affecting millions.

A ban on travel from much of Europe to the U.S. is to begin today at 11:59 p.m. Eastern. The restrictions don’t apply to American citizens but nevertheless caused chaos on Thursday, as panicked passengers tried to leave Europe before they took effect. Here’s a guide to the restrictions.

Sophie Grégoire Trudeau, the wife of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada, has tested positive for the virus. Mr. Trudeau shows no symptoms and is not being tested, but will work from home for 14 days.

The White House press secretary said that neither President Trump nor Vice President Mike Pence would be tested after meeting with a Brazilian official who later tested positive. An Australian official who met last week with Attorney General William Barr and Ivanka Trump, Mr. Trump’s daughter and senior adviser, said today that he had the virus.

China reported its lowest tally from the virus since January, with eight new infections confirmed in the past 24 hours.

In sports, the N.C.A.A. canceled the men’s and women’s basketball tournaments, and several professional leagues suspended or postponed their seasons.

Every Disney theme park will be closed starting this weekend. The company’s cruise line is suspending departures.

In New York, Broadway theaters are going dark for a month, and cultural institutions including the Metropolitan Museum of Art, the Museum of Modern Art and the Guggenheim will close temporarily

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weighed myself on Friday morning.... 266.2 lbs

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CORONAVIRUSMANIA

CORONAVIRUSMANIA

One of two things are possible.
Option 1: The corona virus is the greatest threat to mankind since forever and will wipe us all out.
OR
Option 2: The corona virus is like some other unpleasant, sometimes deadly viruses that have appeared, and disappeared from our consciousness over the past few years.  And likely, no one will remember its name a few years from now.  Our entire society will seem silly when we look back at the draconian measures taken to combat this virus.

At this point, apparently both possibilities are.... well.... possible.

Put me down for Option 2.