APRIL FOOLS DAY

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APRIL CANCELED

from axios.com

America's grimmest month

by Caitlin Owens

President Trump asked Americans to continue social distancing until April 30, officials warned that tens or even hundreds of thousands of Americans could die — and that's the least depressing scenario.

Why it matters: April is going to be very hard. But public health officials are in agreement that hunkering down — in our own homes — and weathering one of the darkest months in American history is the only way to prevent millions of American deaths.

The big picture: Because of early missteps by the Trump administration, the virus has already spread widely throughout the United States, undetected, and the number of cases in most major U.S. cities has skyrocketed.

• We now must wait for the virus to run its course among those who are already sick, or have recently been exposed and fall ill in the next few days.
• Even though the administration is urging adherence to its social distancing guidelines, many states still haven't shut down nonessential businesses or issued shelter-in-place orders, meaning the virus is still likely spreading in these areas.

By the numbers: Estimates now being echoed by the Trump administration have found that the U.S. coronavirus outbreak will peak in two weeks.

• Deborah Birx, who's coordinating the White House coronavirus response, mentioned by name a model by the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation that predicts the demand for hospital beds and supplies — including ventilators — will far exceed supply on April 14.
• On that day, 2,341 coronavirus deaths are expected in a single day. 
• The model predicts that 81,000 Americans will die over the next four months, and that's assuming strong adherence to social distancing measures.

The alternative is worse. Without social distancing, as many as 2.2 million Americans could die, Trump said yesterday — the number of deaths predicted by a report releasedearlier this month.

Between the lines: Even though the federal government and private companies are scrambling to manufacture more medical supplies, even under miraculous scenarios, it's too late to manufacture our way out of the shortages that are predicted over the next few weeks.

• But health care workers and the federal government are getting creative with ways to stretch a limited supply, through measures like sanitizing and reusing masks and finding ways to use a single ventilator for more than one patient.

The bottom line: We should all expect the same harrowing stories from hospitals in Italy and China to be replicated here. At the same time, we'll be wading into uncharted economic territory.

• And yet, we've never all had such an important role to play, as individuals, in mitigating a national crisis: staying home, and stopping the spread.

Subscribe to Mike Allen's Axios AM to follow our coronavirus coverage each morning from your inbox.

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AMERICA NEEDS A FORMULA FOR REOPENING by Ben Shapiro

Yikes, I prepared this posting as I wanted to record this op-ed piece from Ben Shapiro.... before President Trump announced that America would basically remain closed through all of April... We are in trouble!



from Jewish World Review

Insight

America Needs a Formula for Reopening

By Ben Shapiro 

Published March 25, 2020

This week, President Donald Trump began openly considering at what point the American government ought to take steps to reopen the American economy. 

He explained: "Our country wasn't built to be shut down. America will again and soon be open for business," suggesting that the timeline will be weeks instead of months. "If it were up to the doctors," Trump said, "they'd say, 'Let's shut down the entire world.' This could create a much bigger problem than the problem that you started with." Later, Trump optimistically proclaimed that he "would love to have the country opened up and just raring to go by Easter."

Trump's projections drew fire — as do all of his statements. These statements, however, caused inordinate faux heartburn among commentators, who shouted that Trump was weighing dollars against lives and deciding in favor of dollars. 

The hashtag #NotDyingForWallStreet began trending on Twitter, followed by the hashtag #DieForTheDow. New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo tweeted: "My mother is not expendable. Your mother is not expendable. We will not put a dollar figure on human life. ... No one should be talking about social darwinism for the sake of the stock market." Presumptive 2020 Democratic nominee Joe Biden said, "I don't agree with the notion that somehow it's OK ... to let people die."

That, of course, was not Trump's suggestion. Trump was merely pointing out — quite correctly — that since the federal government has now taken the unprecedented and justifiable action of completely shutting down the American economy, to the tune of millions of lost jobs and the greatest quarterly economic decline in recorded history, we must also have a plan to end this situation. 

The economy cannot remain shuttered indefinitely; the federal government cannot engage in endless cash expenditures on the basis of treasuries nobody is buying.

Nor is the economy merely Wall Street. The vast majority of those who will lose their jobs are not day traders but workers. Small companies are more likely to go under than large ones. The economy isn't an abstraction. It's the real lives of hundreds of millions of American citizens, and costs to those Americans must be weighed in the balance.

That's not controversial. That's a simple fact. Public policy is the craft of weighing risks and rewards, and policymakers do it every day. It's just that this time, the stakes are the highest they have ever been.

So, when do we reopen, and how?

The biggest problem is that we lack the data to answer the question. How many lives will be lost if we take heavy social measures after how many weeks? Moderate social measures? What will be the concomitant economic gain or loss? How many additional ICU beds and ventilators will we need to make available in order to clear the flattened curve such that we do not experience excess deaths due to lack of equipment, a la Italy?

Our goal should be to move from the Chinese model — total lockdown — to the South Korean model — heavy testing, contact investigations and social distancing. In order to accomplish that, we need to flatten the curve and stop the spread, allowing us to reset. How long will that take?

We're not going to have answers until some time passes — until we test more, until the outcomes of cases are made certain. 

But we can certainly construct the formulas that should allow us to calculate possible outcomes as new data comes in, and that should allow us to collectively commit to actions directed at certain outcomes. We require a formula from the government. That's the transparency the markets need, that the American people need. 

And that, at least, should be attainable over the next two weeks.

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ECLIPSE

Totality. My family needed to be 350 miles away from Chicago to see totality. We bucked the traffic trend from northern Illinois and drove northeast to St Clair, Missouri after spending a couple of days in Branson. The difference between seeing a 99% eclipse and totality is huge. While the slimmest sliver of the sun is showing, you need your protective goggles. When totality begins, you enjoy the show with your naked eye. I didn't remember to experience everything. I was unaware of the sounds of cicadas ratcheting up. The temperature did drop in the last moments before the sun disappeared altogether. The bright sunshine of the day made it feel like the light of the last few moments of a day before the sun hides under the horizon. It took a lot of effort to get this experience and it was well worth it. The weather forecast was depressing with 24 hours to go, but miraculously, on the dot on the map that my family selected to experience this, the sun was shining brightly when it counted. This photo is not mine. It was the closest photo that I could find online so that I could remember what I did see with my naked eyes. My next eclipse posting will be April 8, 2024. I will likely recount my adventures from somewhere in Ohio. One thing I might do differently next time? Find a hotel room to stay over wherever I am after the event. That 350 mile trip home from St Clair, Missouri to Chicago took about 11 hours.
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This blog that I did everyday for nearly two years was a good idea. It was a very bad idea to cease blogging. The blog kept me in check. My weight this morning is 261 lbs. Oh yeah, I started at 309 llbs a long time ago. So technically I could say that I lost 47 lbs. The problem is, my low weight was under 220 lbs. So really, I have recently gained 40 lbs. Within a day, a week or sometime soon... I am going to rededicate myself to a eating healthy and exercising. Why this blog was so important to keeping my focused? I don't know... I just was. I will be back.

EXHIBITIONISM IS COMING TO TOWN

Exhibitionism is an exhibit of approximately 500 Rolling Stones artifacts that originally spent some time in London before crossing the Atlantic and landing in New York City.  The next stop for Exhibitionism will be Chicago's Navy Pier. During an extraordinarily spring-like day in February, during a walk with my daughter that took us to Navy Pier we found this piece of artwork which is promoting the upcoming exhibit. I am a fan of the Rolling Stones, but I am fairly certain that I will not be checking out the exhibit. I can remember once going to the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame in Cleveland and viewing old wardrobes of Mick Jagger from long gone tours just did not interest me too much. Nevertheless, I thoroughly enjoyed running into this large tongue on Navy Pier yesterday.

Rolling Stones Tongue at Navy Pier to promote  Exhibitionism coming to  Chicago in the Spring

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Your Food Diary For:

Monday, February 20, 2017

BREAKFAST	Calories kcal	Carbs g	Fat g	Protein g	Sodium mg	Sugar g
Kirkland - Bacon, 5 slices	200	0	15	15	875	0
Quaker - Chewy Granola 90 Calories	180	38	4	2	160	14
Essential Everyday - Butter Flavored Grits	300	63	3	6	1,020	3
	680	101	22	23	2,055	17
L U N C H
Johnsonville - Polish Kielbasa	440	6	40	18	1,020	1
Egg, whole, cooked, poached, 3 large	215	1	14	19	446	1
	655	7	54	37	1,466	2
D I N N E R
Homemade - Egg Plant Parmigiana	400	30	24	17	1,538	3
Pasta	400	82	2	14	0	4
	800	112	26	31	1,538	7
S N A C K S
Lindt - White Coconut Chocolate	400	32	30	5	67	30
	400	32	30	5	67	30
Totals	2,535	252	132	96	5,126	56
Your Daily Goal	5,000	625	166	251	2,300	187
Remaining	2,465	373	34	155	-2,826	131
	Calories kcal	Carbs g	Fat g	Protein g	Sodium mg	Sugar g

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       Your Exercise Diary for:

Monday, February 20, 2017

Cardiovascular	Minutes	Calories Burned
Treadmill, 3mph, 15 incline	60	684
Elliptical Trainer	60	582
6 mile urban hike	78	1,218
Elliptical Trainer	60	586
Daily Total / Goal	258 / 30	3,070 / 590
Weekly Total / Goal	258 / 210	3,070 / 4,130

treadmill, 60 minutes, 3mph, incline 15

elliptical, 60 minutes, level 15

elliptical, 60 minutes, level 15